
Concern of the RMB exchange rate battle this week will to another climax. in the exchange rate Expected risks , the Chinese export enterprises seem to have intimate knowledge of .
September 24 , the U.S. House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee in the bipartisan support, passed a for the RMB exchange rate trade bill , that is "fair trade currency reform bill . " According to local media reports, the U.S. House of Representatives expected first in the United States local time, on September 29 on the bill the plenary vote to vote .
Hai Tong Securities research team that the House of Representatives vote, the the motion more likely for the " 70% ", but even in the House of Representatives passed , if the real implementation but also through the Senate and U.S. President Barack Obama signed by Caixing . " But now the Senate the bill resolution does not rafts agenda, even if the rafts the agenda of the Democratic seats Station 2 / 3 of the Senate , through the possibility of only 40 %. " The agency believes that .
"I still maintain the full year slow the appreciation is expected to , after mid-term elections the din of , the RMB exchange rate has appreciated should not be another example, while ago so quickly a . " One of the industry to the " First Financial Daily " reporters.
Interestingly, while the dollar in the Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival holiday period is the sharp decline , of RMB against the U.S. dollar on Monday the central parity reported 6.7098 yuan , ending a八日created in 2005 exchange reform since a new high the trend . And just last week against the dollar is rising continuously , the dollar / yuan central parity of for the first time below 6.7000 yuan .
in this Sino-US trade and exchange rate disputes node , many in China foreign trade enterprises seems to have of the results intimate knowledge that the bill limited impact on the exchange rate fluctuations the limited majority of , but also to do a deal with exchange rate fluctuations the preparation of .
Agencies generally expected is of this year by the end , the RMB appreciation will not be much . Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute, Li Thunder on the "First Financial Daily "said , "to the end of the year the RMB has appreciated roughly 2-3 %, certainly not more than 5 %. "
for export enterprises Response measures , he believes the short-term fluctuations do not have much way in the long run only through product upgrades to solve the problem.
"Because if not appreciate, will encounter many non- tariff trade barriers. RMB appreciation on low-end manufacturing the influence of is relatively large , of China is now exporting a larger proportion electromechanical products , the limited impact . " Hai Tong Securities believes .
Hai Tong Securities research team believes that of the export enterprises the recommendations can do more to exchange rate hedging , for the corresponding futures object business can be based on a slowly rising the RMB trend of to take the risk hedging measures , " for the export enterprises can Multi- signed restricted currency settlement order ; and import business , you can based on the exchange rate defer imports . "
Beijing Tianyi Curtain Wall Engineering Co., Ltd. International Department Liu Yang of "First Financial Daily " said that he thought the most recent the RMB exchange rate fluctuation in is relatively large , for they do involve large sums imports of raw materials , and the contracts amount of relatively large business , Impact Is indeed a Relatively large . But for the before the end of yuan against the dollar the trend , he from traders the perspective of judged , that " 2% is a relatively modest . My own hunch is around 2% . "
Customers are traders, Global Sources chief operating officer of Pei grams are on the First Financial Daily that based on his the export business customers and buyers feedback. "I find in general overseas buyers , is also the world more well-known retailer that China's current cost, plus the appreciation of the RMB , may bring some pressure , but after consultation and introduction of new products , buyers are generally acceptable 5 % Of the price increases . "
As Premier Wen Jiabao last week in New York said , " the two countries the commercial interests of are inseparable. China is willing to see a strong stable of the United States , and similarly, the United States would like to see a strong and stable China . " Most of the media that the United States Government Rational settlement of disputes.
Foreign Trade University, Foreign Economic and Trade University, China WTO Research Institute Tu Xinquan that " members of Congress are politicians , more needs to attract eyeballs, and the U.S. government decision-makers will be more rational to consider the overall situation . "
Former NPC Vice Chairman , Democratic National Construction Association chairman of the Central Cheng Siwei, on the " First Financial Daily "reporters that the U.S. a hearing will indeed have RMB appreciation to bring pressure on , but RMB exchange rate above all a country's sovereignty, must be China's own decision. Second, the RMB exchange rate to a reasonable and balanced level remained relatively stable.