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The CIA disclosed an unprecedented level of 71 China-related top-secret National Intelligence Estimate. 71 top-secret intelligence files that the time span of 1948-1978, which relates to the CIA on China's political, economic, social, and military development, assessment, look and judge, including whether China will participate in the Korean War, China is will resist the United States Vietnam War, China would immediately recover Taiwan if the island, Kinmen is daring million U.S. warships shelled the Sino-Soviet relations and a series of tragedies will happen if the most sensitive issue is the focus of attention. No secret Central Intelligence Agency, said: "The information will help us further understand China and the Chinese government to understand that there may be a challenge to U.S. interests and security of the country."
Assessment of China's economic development has never been accurately
After the Korean War, the CIA intelligence assessment of a considerable part of China placed on China's economic development prospects. However, the CIA's senior intelligence analyst at the National Intelligence Assessment They complained, said: "The statistics published by the Chinese government is not timely incomplete and therefore want to control China's overall economic situation is very difficult. For example, the Chinese government's first five year plan (1952-1957) aims to continue to modify and change, so that analysts not to fit. "
In this case, the CIA's intelligence analysts had to use the model of the Soviet model of economic development in China according to set and try to draw the appropriate conclusions.
So "according to dipper gourd painting" the natural way of intelligence analysis to China's economic development focus to heavy industry and transportation, it can be in fact the main theme of China's economy is agriculture. This way, the CIA estimated that upon completion of the first five years, China's GDP should increase by 20 to 25%, which is a far cry from the actual situation in China. Over the next many years, the CIA National Intelligence Estimate on China's economic development is too low, too high to evaluate the development of China's economic situation and prospects, the facts prove that it had never been accurate.
In 1966, the CIA set up the Office of Economic Research, which took a comprehensive study of China's economic burden, but the performance is also not very good. In short, the CIA intelligence assessment on China's biggest fault is that there is no expected loss to China's economic reform and opening night will take off, and this gives the U.S. government was furious.
Reputation of the PLA has a lot of words
Assessment of China's military power is a CIA National Intelligence Estimate and the focus of the Special National Intelligence Estimate. As early as the beginning of the founding of the CIA's intelligence assessment to conclude that the PLA is a "highly effective fighting force, the United States is a threat to national security interests," more than the CIA's National Intelligence Estimate was filled with praise of the PLA speech, for example:
Number is 77-48 1948 National Intelligence Estimate, wrote: "The Chinese Communist Party's powerful armed forces and power tactics is key to success in the future is still so."
Chinese People's Volunteers in 1950, before the entry into combat, a National Intelligence Estimate, wrote: "The Chinese Communist Party's armed forces will have the following capabilities: a) in the foreseeable future, will prevent the United Nations forces in the north; b) launch a powerful attack forced the United Nations forces southward retreat. "
1954 National Intelligence Estimate 13-54, wrote: "The PLA is now no country in Asia the most powerful army."
100-9-58 1958 National Intelligence Estimate said: "If only rely on the words of the Kuomintang army, the PLA is fully capable of blocking the Taiwan Strait, blocking the supply of the island, or the capture of the island of Taiwan."
However, the role of the PLA and threats, the CIA believes that self-defense, the PLA's main strategy is defensive, whether it is developing nuclear weapons or missiles and related operational regulations and does not suggest that the PLA has compelling trend. The PLA's nuclear weapons in the short term "weapons of deterrence", mainly for self-defense.
Claims that China is determined to dare to U.S. warships, the U.S. President ordered the Navy for this "back away"
In the top-secret intelligence files released in two involved in the Vietnam War about whether China, three is about the 1958 Taiwan Strait crisis.
Two Vietnam War against the United States about whether China will be top-secret intelligence files show, U.S. intelligence analysts have serious differences on this, particularly in China and the United States is willing to risk the risk of all-out conflict issues. For example, in 1966, in the United States to further expand the bombing of Hanoi and Haiphong, the U.S. government asked the CIA assessment of the situation in China is involved in the Vietnam War. Number of special National Intelligence Estimate 13-66, wrote: "In the current circumstances, we believe that China will not put ground or air defense forces and confront the United States, as China or North Vietnam and the United States do not want to brave the risk of nuclear war." The assessment concluded that: The Chinese did not like the Korean War confrontation with the United States.
Very similar to this, in the Taiwan Strait crisis, the CIA's intelligence assessment made the same mistake. May 1958 of an intelligence assessment made, wrote: "Considering the possible outbreak of the danger of war with the United States, China, Taiwan will not take any military action."
August 1959, when the PLA started shelling Quemoy million, the United States National Security Council asked the CIA to immediately assess the intention of the Chinese Government, 100 -9-58 Special National Intelligence Estimate says: "This is the Chinese government's determination to test the U.S. government However, given that the U.S. might intervene, it should not attack the island of Taiwan. "When the People's Liberation Army announced that it will attack any foreign warships in territorial waters of China, the other a CIA intelligence assessment that it seems" China and the U.S. government dare risk the danger of war ", it is estimated that if the U.S. dares defenders to send ships to provide supplies for the Golden Gate Kuomintang, then the People's Liberation Army" really dare to attack the U.S. warships. "
After receiving the report, U.S. President Eisenhower decided to only U.S. warships on the high seas naval escort for the KMT. At the same time, the U.S. government on the one hand threatened that if the Chinese mainland to expand war, the United States would use tactical nuclear weapons, but on the other hand sent quietly resumed negotiations with the Chinese government.
Should not forget the lessons of
"National Intelligence Council" (national intelligencecouncil) evaluation of the main 席罗伯特哈金斯 the intelligence said, "It represents the 1948-1978 years, China's particular stage of history, including China's liberation war, the establishment and consolidation of the Communist regime and the split with the Soviet Union. "
The top secret CIA files is the most extensive to date public records on China, similar in 1996, the agency announced a large number of documents about the Soviet Union, but most of those documents for review of Cold War. Compared to the Soviet Union, Su Dingge that intelligence files on China contains "many think, especially for someone to give U.S. interests and security posed by the continuing challenge of the country."
For the CIA's mistakes, the U.S. intelligence experts warned that the U.S. government Suding Ge said, should be the year of the Chinese intelligence misjudgment as a warning, should not continue to "make mistakes."
China's army when the war back in Vietnam, give the Americans a sort of a small shock, the Americans, there was a Department of Defense Blue Book program, to the effect that in 500 years, the ban could in any way and the Chinese Army conflict program! ! The first time in decades, the Chinese army has developed to the point where bizarre.
Parade on the so-called 99 tanks, just an ordinary second-line troops and equipment only, long dress on the front line of troops known as "tiger" of the 2003 tanks! Modified the tank more than 700 km per hour forward and carry the 250-to-air missiles general, and because with the "Chang'e Project" satellite joint guidance system, the missile a maximum range of more than 150 km! ! What is this concept! ? Means that the U.S. M1A2 tanks, even if it can reach 100% hit rate, but also 20 to 40 to Pindiao us one!
Those who need at least 200 armed helicopters destroyed a 2003-style possible! As to those army's elite combat duty divisions, it is loaded on the 2003E KB tank! ! Complete small missile, a tank can carry 400 missiles actually! ! In other words, as long as two such tanks, can block the Yalu River, just 10 such tanks, can plow flat ground troops in Europe! And we already have such tanks on the vehicles it! ! !
2, Navy.
No good pretending not to Na Wage China's aircraft carrier, and it even aircraft carriers to China do not deserve to sandals! ! Many fans like to go to Shanghai Shipyard, the military, or peek at Dalian Shipyard has no aircraft carriers under construction, but never thought that China's aircraft carrier construction is simply not there, but built in the sea!
Because the world is simply no place to accommodate such a large 8-km-long aircraft carrier deck, the standard runway 16, a bomb attack three times for the whole of Hokkaido! With the "Chang'e Project" satellite system can be accurately associated magnetic disturbance within 300 km detonated 5 grams of de-tona-tor, the ship numbered "208" of the Chinese aircraft carrier away from the "BoB!!! Magnet" carrier nightmare. But also point to note is that it can dive! That is, it is the legendary aircraft carrier scuba diving! ! ! 8,000 meters deep maximum potential! Underwater cruising speed of 300 knots! ! As long as it is willing to, as long as the day went to the China Sea from any corner of the world missions! Including the Sahara Desert.
3, the Air Force.
Do not laugh at what "space fleet", and because it is real. Know why the Chinese university began enrollment Why, it was just smoke and mirrors, just to cover all kinds of Chinese aerospace university enrollment the truth! Now, those who began graduate enrollment of university students, we can begin to unlock secrets of our basic astronaut training countless! The end of 2004 the Pentagon has experienced an unprecedented panic, because their probe satellite in the asteroid belt found the Chinese people's space fleet carrier 800 km length of the space! Space on the ten thousand warships to the Americans at all levels think they look at science fiction blockbuster!
Astronomy enthusiasts have never see the sixth satellite of Saturn, because in the last exercise, China's space fleet of 12 battleships of the super-spin magnetic moment of it evaporates into the gas gun! ! And this is the Chinese space fleet actually the weakest of the three fleets one, called "Goddess fleet" in addition to patrol the edge of the orbit of Neptune, "Shen Nong fleet", as well as by the 12 giant aircraft carrier in space, the one million expedition composed of all levels of space ships star Alpha Centauri, "Fu Xi Fleet" because of our honest and kind to the earth we do not have the heart to the compatriots in any form of armed conflict, U.S. hegemony in the face of increasingly acute, we have chosen tolerance and give way, we intend to national immigration outer space.
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