April 2, France's largest daily newspaper "Le Figaro" shocking introduction Weekend: take home with almost half the effective area of a huge picture of coverage of China. Headlines: China's economic boom. Subtitle is "the first quarter, 12% of China's economic growth is expected. A world record. In export growth and strong domestic demand level on today.". The economy version, including the cover page, is equally eye-catching photos and text: China's growth to stimulate consumption. Almost a full page article.

  

If you take into account the economic situation in France, French media reported that the shock of not surprising: China's economic aggregate is only slightly more than half, but the economic growth rate than 1% to. The gap between the two sides are to pull acceleration.

  

  

The "Le Figaro" newspaper reported on the Chinese economy is quite innovative. One pointed out that the China Import and Export in March since April 2004 appears the first time since the case of a deficit (59 million euros), due to the substantial expansion of consumption and stimulate economic growth. Second, no mention of China's market bubble. Including real estate, the stock market. Third, the whole of China is full of confidence in the economy. China's economic take-off began reform and opening up.

  

  

This is 30 years, the outside world has been full of questions on the Chinese economy. Collapse of China has been prevalent. France in recent years, for example, in 2007, the U.S. economic bubble collapse on the eve of the famous current affairs weekly magazine "L'EXPRESS" launch special issue of China, to towering human headline predicted China's economy to collapse. The results still ringing in our ears, it touches on the United States crashed rupture, and evolved into the economic crisis sweeping the globe. Into 2009, China took the lead out of the economic crisis, unexpectedly, including France, the West again, "the Chinese economy is a huge bubble about to burst" of prophecy. March 15 this year, the French Economic Times, "Tribune," commented that China has, as in 2007 when the United States, even more than the United States when the Internet bubble in 2000 and 2007 the real estate bubble bigger. And also very accurate to October 31 is the date of the end of the World Expo in China's economic collapse as a point in time.

  

  

Taken together, these predictions of China's economic collapse was based primarily on the real estate bubble. However, the real estate bubble in China and the West really like the U.S., Japan, the same?

  

  

National People's Congress this year, Premier Wen Jiabao answer a reporter's question, he say: "Beijing, Shanghai, China can not represent and should see more of the Midwest." The same logic, the highest growth rates in Beijing and Shanghai can not represent the whole of China. The two cities combined have more than three million people, only a fraction of China's 1.3 billion population, one-tenth. In fact, the whole world in such political and economic center of the city's housing prices are extremely high. Paris is in the global economic crisis, prices have been rising. Taiwan's economic stagnation despite two decades, but the prices as high as 430,000 Taiwan dollars a square meter (RMB nearly million).

  

  

In addition, China's biggest difference is that money buy a house from a national perspective is still in the minority. China's overall consumption is still not formed the habit of borrowing. Either one-time payment, or there must be a considerable amount of down payment. This means that even if a family problem, it will not give rise Which will lead to a chain reaction: banks can not recover the loans, the formation of the financial crisis, thereby affecting the entire economic area.

  

  

From the foreseeable future to see, because even though the pace of urbanization in China is the world twice, but still less than 50%. As long as China is not the end stage of urbanization, strong demand for support in the next, real estate gold could still continue. Can be said that at least three years, China's real estate is still not a real bubble.

  

  

However, in my view, the West saw the biggest misunderstanding is that only Beijing and Shanghai, only to see the real estate, but no serious consideration to promote economic growth troika: investment, exports and consumption. Compared with the West, these three are the real decision to be thriving in China's economic reason why.

  

There are many economists in China today than done when the Japanese yen's appreciation. In fact, this is a space-time error. Appreciation of the yen eighties of last century when a bridge built in Japan with the investment space is almost non-existent. Sufficient funds to either go overseas or into real estate. Now most of the Western developed countries to enter this mature stage of infrastructure. In addition to foreign investment, domestic capital has been no large-scale of which was displaying. China is different. Although the total size of the economy has leapt to second in the world, regardless of infrastructure, high-speed rail, or highway, the growth rate of China is the world's largest, but far from the standard and scale of the West today. This is why the face of economic crisis in 2007, China can quickly implement 4 trillion yuan investment, the reason here. At least in my opinion, investing in carriages also should have three years of useless.

  

Consumption is rather similar to the investment. For three decades, consumption has been sluggish economic development in China has been hidden. And has been the globalization of trade is through foreign demand to resolve. Currently, China's consumption share of GDP accounted for only 35% or even 50% lower than in Asia and the developed countries 60% to 70%. But on the other hand, domestic demand also shows that the space is extremely large. 2009 in the case of shrinking foreign trade, consumption actually increased by 15.5% is proof. In absolute terms, China's car consumption has more than cars of the Kingdom of the United States. China, as long as the introduction of the appropriate stimulus (such as the auto industry cut taxes, home appliances to the countryside), and gradually establish a social security system, China's consumption will be maintained over at least three years of high growth. The West of this consumer driven economic to now have not much room for improvement on the contrary, as Obama said the United States: The United States needs to reduce consumption and increase savings.

  

  

As for the import and export trade, now assert that the golden age of China's exports would be premature to come to an end. As China's huge labor force and the hard work of national character, that is, taking into account the future revaluation of the renminbi, its competitiveness will be long-term maintenance. With China's industrial upgrading, high-tech export competitiveness will be more apparent. Now the high-speed rail is an example. Integration of large amounts of capital, high technology and large scale human large civil aircraft, China once the technology is mature and competitive in the world is no one aspired to. At least I believe that China will never default occurs repeatedly postponed delivery of the "Airbus" phenomenon. Moreover, appreciation of the renminbi means inexpensive western end of the era, rising prices, in turn, to further curb the sluggish consumption. And because the yuan revaluation of certain products out of space, will be India, Southeast Asia and even Africa, replaced by lower-cost countries, reducing the trade deficit is no benefit to the West. In this battle of renminbi appreciation, China to pay the price at the same time get a faster industrial upgrading, while the West is only the price but nothing.

  

In addition, the West, the Chinese have the advantage of a national character: frugality. EU to stabilize the economy, the provisions of the fiscal deficit-GDP ratio can not exceed 3%, the proportion of public debt can not exceed 60%. Almost all of the western countries has far exceeded. Italian public debt exceeded 100%, Japan's public debt-GDP ratio even more than 200%, but China is only 18%. When the economic crisis, the western countries to save the city money can only come from issuing bonds. China, whether people or countries have considerable savings, China's four trillion bail-out is indeed shrugs.

  

Of course, the West has its sluggish economy and welfare system has become a heavy burden of unsustainable the more popular political participation and political decision-making of the short-lead, low quality of the. This is the future of China should be a very good value of lessons learned.

  

  

If the West pole, the real test of China's economy, or after three years. But if the Chinese model as a new path of human West might be the long-term in the unbalanced state of mind in looking at China to pull away. As the British political philosopher John. Gray commented: "For any developing country can not get rid of the Western model of argument, we can not understand the restructuring of the current world situation. When China began to grow, she will become more sure of their ancient civilization continue down values. she will find wisdom in history to create a new model of modernization.